Sophy Ridge on Sunday Interview with Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland, 19.03.17

ANY QUOTES USED MUST BE ATTRIBUTED TO SOPHY RIDGE ON SUNDAY, SKY NEWS

SOPHY RIDGE: I am joined in the studio now by the First Minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, thank you for being with us this morning.  So back in 2014 we were all told that the independence referendum was a once in a generation event so I’m a little bit confused, just how long do you think a generation is?

NICOLA STURGEON: I think that’s a reasonable question but of course Brexit changed everything in 2016 and if we cast our minds back to the 2014 referendum what we were also told by those campaigning against independence at that time was that a yes vote would jeopardise our place in the European Union and only a no vote would secure it so the 2016 vote on the EU really was a material change in circumstances.  The future of the UK looks very different today than it did two years ago and my argument is quite a simple one: we know as a result of the Brexit vote that change is coming for Scotland and we can’t avoid that change now so the question is what kind of change do we want and shouldn’t we have the right to choose that?  Do we want to go down the hard Brexit path or do we want to choose independence so that we can create a genuine partnership of equals across the British isles but also secure a relationship with Europe?  So it’s about choice, it’s about saying to people the future of Scotland really should be decided by Scotland and not decided for us by Westminster governments.

SR: So in that your whole argument is that there has been a change in circumstances because of Brexit, that was in page 23 of your referendum but at the same time it does seem a little bit like you are trying to catch people out with the small print because what you have also been saying very strongly is that you won’t have another referendum until it’s clear a majority of Scottish people want it.  I’m just going to look for example at what you said when you launched your manifesto in 2016, “Setting a date for a referendum before a majority of the Scottish people have been persuaded independence is the best future for our country is the wrong way round” and there hasn’t been a single poll that shows that’s the case, that’s changed.  

NICOLA STURGEON: Maybe I’m old fashioned but I don't think manifestos are small print.  The manifesto that I was elected on as First Minister, incidentally with the highest share of the vote across Scottish constituencies of any party in history of the Scottish Parliament, is really important and what it said – and you’ve quoted both of those bits of the manifesto, what it said was that the Scottish Parliament should have the right to have another referendum if there is a significant change in opinion or if there is a material change in circumstances.

SR: But I’m talking about the emphasis that you chose to make when you were standing on the stage, it’s the same emphasis that you made for example when you launched the manifesto and also in those Holyrood [inaudible] as well.

NICOLA STURGEON: My manifesto speaks for itself and anybody can go and look at the terms of the manifesto I was elected on and that is yes, we said if there was a material shift in opinion or – and the word or was there – if there is a material change in circumstances and it expressly said such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will.  We were elected fully overwhelmingly on the strength of that manifesto.  But look I’m making an argument, everybody knows I support independence, I don't think I’m telling you anything you don’t know but…

SR: So no big secret then.

NICOLA STURGEON: No exclusive for you here but this is about choice and if people in Scotland decide that hard Brexit, the way Theresa May wants to take the UK is what Scotland wants, that’s one thing but …

SR: But there is no sign that Scottish people want that choice is there?

NICOLA STURGEON: What I would actually suggest is that there is every sign.  There has been a slew of opinion polls over the past week, there was one showing that a majority of people did think if the Scottish government said there should be a referendum then the UK government should not stand in the way.

SR: But there has been none saying that the majority of Scottish people want independence which is what you were talking about when you launched your manifesto.

NICOLA STURGEON: I set out what my manifesto says and anybody can, they don’t have to listen to me you can go and check that and the mandate for the choice I am seeking to give people now is very clear, it’s beyond any shadow of a doubt.  But on the question of public opinion, I guess what I’m saying is it should be for people to choose because we know that Brexit means change now is inevitable, it is about what kind of change do we want and who gets to decide that.  If a referendum on independence was to be denied then effectively the future of Scotland has not been decided by us, it’s been decided for us.  Now I should say I don’t propose a referendum now, I don't think it would be right to put that choice to the people of Scotland before the terms of Brexit were clearer, much, much clearer than they are now but I also think it would be fair for people in Scotland once the terms are clear, to have that choice before it’s too late to choose a different course.

SR: Let’s talk about that timetable should we because Theresa May has made it pretty clear that she doesn’t accept the timetable you’ve put on the table which is by autumn 2018.

NICOLA STURGEON:  No it’s not, it’s by the earliest autumn 2018.

SR: The earliest autumn 2018, would you accept her timetable which is after…

NICOLA STURGEON: I don't know what her timetable is.  After Brexit could be from now to never by definition.

SR: Shall we say after the Brexit negotiations, after the UK has left the EU, would you then be happy to have a referendum then?

NICOLA STURGEON: I guess that depends on what that time frame then looks like.  I’ve said and I …

SR: Potentially then?

NICOLA STURGEON: Let me just set out my position clearly.  I said yesterday that if Theresa May’s concern is timing then within reason I’m happy to have that discussion.  I’m trying to find some consensus here, we both say not now so we agree on that, I’ve set out the time frame that I think would fair and reasonable, she says she doesn’t agree with that so I think it’s therefore for her to say what time frame she thinks would be reasonable and then let’s have that discussion.  I’m perfectly happy to have that discussion.  

SR: So would 2020 be okay?

NICOLA STURGEON: That takes me to the second point I was going to make.  I don't think it would be fair for Scotland to have a delay so that it meant that Scotland was taken out of the EU, a long, long period of time was allowed to elapse making it much harder then for Scotland, even if it wanted to, to negotiate a different relationship with Europe.  That’s why I talk about before it’s too late for us to choose a different course. I’ve tried very, very hard to compromise with Theresa May over the past number of months.  What viewers outside of Scotland may not be aware of is that we actually put forward a proposal that would have accepted Scotland staying in the UK, coming out of the EU but protecting our place within the single market, proposing new powers for the Scottish Parliament to try to protect Scotland’s interests in a post-Brexit landscape so we tried very hard to compromise and we’ve met so far with a UK government that has been very intransigent and not willing to enter into that discussion.

SR: Part of Theresa May’s concern of course will be that this is not the right thing to be hanging over these crucial negotiations.  Now I understand of course that you represent people in Scotland, do you not care at all about the instability, about other people in the UK, about England, Wales and Northern Ireland?

NICOLA STURGEON: I do care, I care deeply.  I didn’t want the UK to be in this position at all, I want the UK to get a good deal from Europe because that, apart from being in the best interests of people in other parts of the UK, that is also in the best interests of people in Scotland …

SR: But this could be a distraction from that deal.

NICOLA STURGEON: But I cannot, and I’m not alone here, I cannot simply pretend that I don’t have real fears that Theresa May will not get a good deal, she may get a bad deal or no deal and even a good deal will be significantly worse than membership of the single market so this comes to the choice I had to make.  I can choose to let Scotland simply drift through the next two years, crossing my fingers, hoping for the best while fearing the worst or I can try to set out a plan for Scotland now that gives at the right time the people of Scotland a choice and I think it’s right to plan to give people in Scotland the choice.

SR: Okay, well let’s talk about that plan should we?  An independent Scotland in your mind, would you be looking to join the EU as a full member state?

NICOLA STURGEON: Yes.

SR: You would?

NICOLA STURGEON: That’s long standing SNP policy.

SR: Even though  it’s so complicated in order to get that application?  All you need is one member state to say no, that’s no good, such as Spain with their own [inaudible] and separatists and you’d be at the back of the queue wouldn’t you because there’s a waiting list.  

NICOLA STURGEON: There is no queue to join the European Union.  We have had several voices over recent times saying if Scotland wanted to be in the EU there would be a very open, warm reception for that.  Now I accept that we’re in changed circumstances.  In 2014 when I was arguing the case for independence the UK was very firmly in the EU, the UK is now going to be coming out of the EU so we have to – and set out very clearly to people in Scotland before asking them to make this choice – the route and process that we have to take to transition from where we are now to being in a relationship with Europe that was right for Scotland.  So that’s detail that requires to be set out but I do believe it’s right for Scotland to remain within that European family of nations, not instead of trading across the UK but in addition to that.  The single market is massively important, it’s massively important to the UK economy, it’s very important to the Scottish economy.  Geographically we are on the periphery of Europe, it’s really important to be in the single market, it’s important for investment and for jobs, to protect the rights of ourselves to follow careers or jobs in other European countries and vice versa, it’s important for all of these reasons so yes, I do think that is important.  It’s also what people what people in Scotland voted for in the EU referendum.

SR: You said the single market is important, of course it is important, but 63% of Scottish trade is with the rest of the UK and that compares to just 16% with the EU.  The real economic risk would be losing …

NICOLA STURGEON: You ask me questions – and I’ll come on to that one in a second – but I absolutely accept the scrutiny of these positions because if you think about the Brexit vote, people were asked to vote with no detail whatsoever.  Nine months on it’s still ‘Brexit means Brexit’ is about as much detail as we’ve got so …

SR: A leap into the dark, a bit like your referendum isn’t it?

NICOLA STURGEON: I’m determined that it wouldn’t be, it would be an informed choice which is why I say the choice should happen when the terms of Brexit are clear and also the obligation is on me in arguing for independence to put forward the detail on what independence looks like.  But to come back to your question, because I wasn’t trying to dodge it, the trade with the rest of the UK is important for Scotland, vitally important for Scotland.  It’s important for the rest of the UK to trade with Scotland and I’m not proposing staying in the single market instead of that trade and for those who say oh it would be impossible for an independent Scotland to trade with the UK, I’ll make two points.  We’ve got a UK government saying it is going to be free to trade with every country in the world, it would be a bit odd if that excluded an independent Scotland.  But secondly, the Prime Minister, and rightly I should say I absolutely agree with the comments she makes in this regard, is saying right now to the Republic of Ireland that the UK being out of the EU and the Republic of Ireland being in it does not necessitate to have a border between Ireland and the UK and would not put in place barriers to trade.  I simply make the point that it is not credible for the UK government to say that to Ireland, an independent country in the EU, and to somehow pretend that the situation would be different for an independent Scotland.

SR: So what currency then would an independent Scotland have?

NICOLA STURGEON: We are doing a piece of work looking at this just now.  Obviously in 2014 we proposed using the pound within a currency union, the starting point of our consideration is that Scotland would use the pound, it’s our currency, it’s a fully tradable international currency but as I’m sure you know, I have a Growth Commission right now looking for a plan for the economic future of Scotland but also looking in detail at currency options for Scotland.

SR: So you don’t know then, you’re not sure what currency you’d use?

NICOLA STURGEON: Well that Commission hasn’t concluded its work yet, I’m being perfectly frank.  Look, a referendum at the earliest is going to be 18 months from now, I absolutely accept well in advance of that not just on currency but on the economic plan, on some of the questions you are asking me on Europe, we will set out a very clear proposition but I think it’s right, given the changed circumstances of Brexit, that we do very serious work before we come to putting that proposition forward.  So that work hasn’t concluded yet.  I said in my speech to the SNP conference yesterday it will conclude over the next few months and at that point we will publish its conclusions for public scrutiny and debate and people … I feel, a few people have said, commentators have said that those of us arguing for independence next time round would try to emulate the Leave campaign by putting slogans on the side of a bus and giving no detail.  I would not want the future of my country to be decided on that basis, I want people in Scotland to have an informed choice and that means informed about the implications of Brexit but also informed about the implications of independence because …

SR: But you can’t say what currency they would use.  Isn’t that something you should work out before calling for a referendum and before going to the country?

NICOLA STURGEON: A referendum, as we have just been talking about, is at the earliest 18 months away but I am not asking people to vote today, tomorrow or next week or next month but what I have said is that we are doing detailed work.  The starting point of our considerations is that Scotland uses the pound, it is our currency as much as it is the currency of anywhere else, but it’s right, we are in very changed circumstances, Brexit changes lots and lots of things not just for Scotland but for the UK so I think people should take some assurance from the fact that we’re doing very detailed work on all of these questions.  Well in advance of being asked to make a choice there will be a proposition put forward for people that allows them to make that choice in a very informed way.

SR: Let’s talk about the economic realities because Scotland has a £15 billion deficit.  Now as a percentage of GDP that is higher than any other EU member state including Greece.  Your economy is growing at a third of the speed of the rest of the United Kingdom, oil revenues in the last two years have fallen by 97%.  Be frank, can Scotland really afford to become an independent country?

NICOLA STURGEON: Well I would actually look at that – perhaps some people would look at that and say can Scotland afford not to be because that deficit – and again these are all absolutely legitimate questions – that deficit is one that has been created on, to use shorthand, Westminster’s watch.  That’s not a feature of life in an independent Scotland, that’s what’s happened with Scotland as part of the UK.

SR: But you are in government, you must take responsibility as well mustn’t you?

NICOLA STURGEON: We are not responsible for macro-economic policy in the Scottish parliament, I wish we were, we might not be in that position.  Of course the UK and most countries have a deficit and the UK has got £1.7 trillion of debt which is separate to deficit obviously.  That’s my first point, my second point and this I think is the most fundamental point, that deficit exists whether we’re independent or not which means that it has to be dealt with whether we’re independent or not.  The question therefore for Scotland is are we better to allow Westminster to keep making the same mistakes that created that deficit in the first place or are we better to set out an economic plan about how we use the greater economic powers of independence to grow our economy, to encourage more people to come to Scotland which if we’re in the single market and the UK is not I suspect we’d be a bit of a magnet for investment, to work out a plan to get to a more sustainable and stronger economic future? That’s the fundamental choice.  The deficit can’t be magicked away whatever our constitutional future, it’s what constitutional arrangements give us the best ability to deal with that situation.

SR: So you blame Westminster but at the same time you get a £26 billion block grant from Westminster as well.

NICOLA STURGEON: That’s the way we’re funded which has been, if you take from the moment the Tories came to power in 2010 to the end of the decade, that block grant will reduce by 10% in real terms so if Scotland is not independent…

SR: You want it for nothing?

NICOLA STURGEON: Well no, that money goes from Scotland to Westminster and then comes back again, but we’re getting overly technical here.  The point I’m making is that if Scotland doesn’t become independent, and that’s a choice for people in Scotland, then what we’re facing are continued cuts to our block grant, we are facing more years of austerity, we’re facing an impact from the UK leaving the single market that is estimated to cost thousands of jobs in Scotland and to reduce our budget even further.  So this is a choice not between some certain future with no difficulties with the UK and lots of uncertainty and difficulties with independence, this is about a future where there are big challenges for Scotland and the UK and how do we best equip ourselves to meet those challenges?  I think staying within the world’s biggest single market, giving ourselves the ability to work towards a more sustainable economic future is far better than allowing ourselves to be taken out of that single market by the UK and facing the economics of austerity for more years just as we have over the past number of years.

SR: There is an argument, isn’t there, that talking about an independence referendum is quite convenient for you because it allows you to distract from your domestic record of the SNP?  Let’s just look at that record for a second: education standards are slipping, a record number of nations are now doing better than Scotland in terms of that; life expectancy is two years less than the UK; the number of children in poverty is up; the number of pensioners in poverty is up and it’s a welcome diversion isn’t it from looking at the record of the SNP?

NICOLA STURGEON: No, it’s not.  Just very briefly I don't think you can separate the health of NHS and education which is affected by overall public spending and budgets from these big decisions about whether we are in our out of the single market or independent or not because …

SR: You see you can’t blame it all on Westminster … you have to take some responsibility.

NICOLA STURGEON: I am First Minister, I take responsibility for all of these things but I was just going to counter some of these.  We saw poverty in Scotland and the UK increasing last week largely down to welfare changes from Westminster.  On education we have got a massive programme of work underway right now to raise standards, to close the attainment gap, we are now seeing improvements in standards in terms of children from more deprived backgrounds doing better in school, going to university.  Take the health service for example, our accident and emergency departments under real pressure in common with others across the UK are performing 13 percentage points better than accident and emergency departments in England.  90.8% of people in Scotland are seen within four hours, 77% in England.  So on many of these judgements we are doing better here in Scotland under the Scottish government than policy south of the border.  So I take those responsibilities very, very seriously but I take my wider responsibilities as First Minister to try to protect Scotland’s interests in the bigger picture, if you like, so that we can continue to invest in health and education and continue to work towards the improvements that all of us want to see.  

SR: If you are so committed to improving things such as education, why do you only mention it once in your speech yesterday when you mentioned independence 30 times?

NICOLA STURGEON: We have got a massive, a massive programme of work underway in education right now so we are in the process of introducing standardised assessments, we’ve just announced £120 million pupil equity fund putting resources directly into the hands of head teachers, we’ve got a governance review of education underway.  What I did talk about in my speech yesterday was the doubling of childcare provision over this parliament and our intention to pay childcare staff who work in our nurseries the living wage so that we can attract more people into that profession and value that work because we know that many of the inequities in education, later in a child’s education, start before they even start school.  We have put such an emphasis on increasing early years and child care provision and that was one of the key announcements in my speech yesterday, as was investment in mental health so we’re going to increase the access to mental health professionals not just in our hospitals but in our prisons and police cells. I also announced investment in my speech yesterday around digital skills.  You can’t just … now I am talking about all the things that I did announce in my speech yesterday you want to stop.  These were all in my speech yesterday, they are all vital but all of these things are at risk if we allow ourselves to be taken down that hard Brexit path that is going to be so damaging for our economy and our society.

SR: Now I am really interested in this question because you are clearly a formidable politician, you have devoted your life to independence, you have built your reputation over many years. This is a huge personal risk for you isn’t it, a second referendum?  If you fail then just like David Cameron this could be all you are remembered for.

NICOLA STURGEON: I am not in politics to judge everything by what it means for my own individual career …

SR: But you must feel that pressure.

NICOLA STURGEON: Any politician worth their salt that doesn’t feel the pressure of the job shouldn’t be in that job so I feel the pressure, I feel far more pressure to make sure we’ve got a really well performing health service and to fulfil the commitments I’ve given around education.  These are the things that matter to me.

SR: And what was the formative thing in Nicola Sturgeon’s life that meant you were do committed to a political career?

NICOLA STURGEON: I grew up with Margaret Thatcher as Prime Minister in a part of Scotland, in common with many communities across England and Wales as well, that was really damaged because of her industrial policy, because of her approach to many policies so I grew up with people who had a sense of hopelessness, unemployment was very high and one of the things when I was very young that seemed wrong to me was that all of these policies were being imposed on Scotland when most of, the vast majority of people in Scotland had never voted for Margaret Thatcher’s party so my politics are driven by social justice and building a better a country.  Independence for me is not the end in itself, it’s the means to an end, it’s the means to trying to build a better Scotland.

SR: So will you stand down then if you lose this referendum.

NICOLA STURGEON: I’m not planning to lose, I’m planning to give people in Scotland a choice and I’m planning to try to persuade them to make what I consider to be the right choice.  After we’ve had it I’ll be perfectly happy to come back and answer those questions but you know it’s not a question that I’m going to engage with right now.  

SR: I was hoping that you would but …

NICOLA STURGEON: You know better!

SR: Nicola Sturgeon, thank you very much.

NICOLA STURGEON: Thank you very much.