ANY QUOTES MUST BE ATTRIBUTED TO SKY NEWS, SOPHY RIDGE ON SUNDAY

SOPHY RIDGE: Well Conservative leave supporters have been pretty up in arms about the Prime Minister’s plan and many have vowed to vote against it. One of them is the former Northern Ireland Secretary Theresa Villiers who joins us now. Thank you for being on the show. So you’ve said you are going to be voting against the Prime Minister’s deal, what do you want to happen?

THERESA VILLIERS: Well I believe that the EU needs to give us a better deal, I think there’s still time for the Prime Minister to ask for a better deal without this backstop, without the unconditional payment of 38 billion but ultimately if the EU are going to be unreasonable then we must be prepared to leave without a formal withdrawal agreement and make a clean break exit.

SR: You just heard from Sir Kier Starmer, the Shadow Brexit Secretary, who said that no deal would be like going off a cliff.

THERESA VILLIERS: I think there is a huge amount of exaggeration and fear mongering about leaving without a withdrawal agreement. Yes, there would be disruption but only if the EU is determined to be uncooperative. Trading on World Trade Organisation terms and most favoured nation status is the basis on which countries around the world do business and indeed the EU itself does business in a perfectly smooth and ordinary manner with many trading partners on that basis so it can do that with us.

SR: At the same time though, is it not too easy to be slightly blasé about what that disruption would mean? We have been reading about formula for babies for example being held up in the Port of Dover, the Bank of England warning that it would have a crash worse than what happened in 2008. I mean this is quite alarming isn’t it?

THERESA VILLIERS: Well it’s not the best outcome, I wish, I hope it won’t come to that, I hope the EU sees reason but there are ways to manage this, to minimise the disruption. I have pressed the government repeatedly on this, they have done a great deal of no deal preparation and it is vital that they use the next three months as effectively as possible to take every possible unilateral step to minimise any potential disruption and inconvenience but there is no doubt that the medium and long term benefits of regaining control over the way we regulate our economy and our trade policy far outweigh any disadvantages in the short term of leaving. Actually the Bank of England debate and statement about equivalence with the 2008 crash, the Governor actually was on the radio saying that’s not the likely outcome, that was just one of a number of scenarios the Bank looked at in worst case scenario. He’s not actually predicting that that is what is going to happen.

SR: But at the same time there could be a recession though couldn’t there, do you admit that?

THERESA VILLIERS: That is what was predicted to occur after the leave vote and it didn’t. That’s what was predicted after the UK declined to join the euro and …

SR: But more things would change after a no deal wouldn’t they?

THERESA VILLIERS: Well if you look at the Treasury forecasts, they underestimate the benefits of new trade agreements, they massively overestimate the costs of customs compliance and also in some instances they don’t actually take into account any of the behaviour change by the government or individuals which will involve adapting to a new situation so they are simply not a realistic picture of what would happen but yes, there would be some disruption but only if the EU wants to behave in an unreasonable way. They are under WTO rules obliged to cooperate with trading partners, they shouldn’t treat us less favourably than other third countries. If they choose to do that, then there will be disruption but it is in breach of their international legal obligations.

SR: If Theresa May can’t get her deal through Parliament, which looks relatively likely with the number of Conservative MPs who have spoken out against it, does she need to stand down?

THERESA VILLIERS: I don't think the leadership is the big issue. I think we need to change the approach, we need to change the policy rather than the person so if this agreement is voted down the Prime Minister should go back to Brussels to make it clear that the draft agreement that was reached is not acceptable, it’s not going to go through Parliament and it is in everybody’s interests to have an agreement without this unnecessary backstop arrangement and an agreement which makes payment to the EU conditional on progress on reaching our future trade arrangement and economic partnership.

SR: So to confirm, you haven’t submitted a letter of no confidence in Theresa May?

THERESA VILLIERS: No, I haven’t.

SR: And how would you vote in a confidence motion?

THERESA VILLIERS: I think it would depend on the … I would certainly vote against any motion of no confidence in the government. If there was a confidence resolution in relation to the Prime Minister I would have to look at the circumstances at the time but my present intention would be to vote to have confidence in the Prime Minister.

SR: And just finally, we’ve been talking this morning about the legal advice that the government has been given on Brexit, whether or not they should have to publish it. What’s your position, do you think the government should publish the full legal advice that it’s received?

THERESA VILLIERS: I support the government’s position on this, it’s entirely exceptional for legal advice ever to be published. The government needs to be able to get free and frank legal advice which it doesn’t have to disclose. There has obviously been this vote in Parliament and I think the government’s proposal to publish a summary of their advice is compliant with that resolution.

SR: Theresa Villiers, thank you very much.