ANY QUOTES USED MUST BE ATTRIBUTED TO SKY NEWS

ANDREW WILSON: A very good evening to you. A year tomorrow, the day of rage erupted in Cairo, the flashpoint for weeks of protest that ended the Mubarak regime. The scenes we witnessed around Tahrir Square have become emblematic of an unparalleled period of change across the region, a period that has seen the overthrow of dictators, civil war, democratic elections and yet also a sense that perhaps nothing has really changed. Along with it, a raft of dilemmas for Arab nations and the wider world, chiefly do we answer calls for more intervention at the risk of even more bloodshed? Well the perspectives on this are many but we want to tonight to engage as many of them as possible. Joining us here tonight, Foreign Office Minister, Alistair Burt, also Tariq Ramadan, a leading Muslim intellectual and author of a new book Islam and the Arab Awakening, his grandfather also founded the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and he is now Professor of Islamic Studies at Oxford University. Also Laleh Khalili, an expert in Middle East politics from SOAS university and also Simon Henderson, a Middle East analyst at the Washington Institute. Remember also you can join the debate online at skynews.com with our panel of Tweeters, using the hashtag #arabspringdebate. So one year on, what has changed? Egypt’s new parliament sat for the first time on Monday, Sky’s Middle East correspondent Emma Hurd is in Cairo for us now. Emma, bring us up to speed with this one year on.

EMMA HURD: Well this is really the place that proved that the Arab Spring was contagious. First Tunisia and then the revolution here in Egypt and tonight thousands are already gathering in Tahrir Square for tomorrow’s demonstration to mark that anniversary of the start of the uprising and it’s not going to be a celebration because the protestors here say not enough has changed yet. Now a lot has, Mubarak has gone of course, there have been democratic elections but the temporary military rulers are still in charge here and even the decision announced today to lift that state of emergency after decades here hasn’t really convinced people that change is coming fast enough because it is still partially enforced just enough to leave the door open for repression. So what now for Egypt? Well I’ve been speaking to one of the leading presidential candidates here Amr Moussa and I asked him whether any of the goals of the revolution had been achieved so far.

AMR MOUSSA: I can’t say that it has achieved all its goals but it has definitely made a difference and a major difference between what has been and what we have today. The democracy now is in the making, the constitution is about to be written, the president is about to be elected, the new republic is about to be proclaimed, the transfer of power from the SCAF to the new elected civilian authority will take effect at the end of June.

EMMA HURD: You mentioned SCAF, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, the supposedly temporary military leadership, which is accused of using the same tactics as the old regime.

AMR MOUSSA: Of course all repressive acts are unacceptable and the law has to apply so whoever committed any challenge to the law will have to stand trial, this is the rule, part of democracy.

EMMA HURD: So the military leadership has to go at the end of June and there is no amnesty for the military leadership?

AMR MOUSSA: Look, the transfer of power is scheduled for that date, not later than that date, it could come earlier and this is a very important point and this is what makes it possible for us, for many of us to look forward to a different future. Civilian authority, elected authority, democratic government and to start rebuilding our country.

EMMA HURD: You are vying to play a very new role in the new Egypt, that of President.

AMR MOUSSA: I am trying to and putting my name as a candidate for the presidency.

EMMA HURD: I’d like to look more regionally, would you keep the peace treaty with Israel?

AMR MOUSSA: The Treaty with Israel will remain, it has two parties, if Israel respects it’s part of the deal we shall respect, we have to respect our part of the deal and I said that we are going to stick to the Arab Initiative all the way because the Arab Initiative expresses the views of all of us in the Arab world.

EMMA HURD: Let’s look at Syria. Obviously you were head of the Arab League and during that time you called for intervention, international intervention in the crisis in Libya. Do you call for that to happen in Syria now?

AMR MOUSSA: Well first of all it is the Arab League Council of Ministers that have decided for the Arab world to go to and co-ordinate with the Security Council, that is not international intervention but the UN intervention. This has, the record has to be corrected. Also the same here our position and the position of the Arab League now is to defend the civilian population, the citizens of Syria, in their uprising, in their goal for a different way of life and we support that.

EMMA HURD: How is the Arab League protecting the civilians right now?

AMR MOUSSA: Well they have started to send, they have sent observers over there …

EMMA HURD: Well they have sent monitors who are watching the violence, not stopping the violence.

AMR MOUSSA: Yes, I think that this position will develop into a different one and I follow that with keen interest but I’m not part of the debate of course, I am former Secretary General.

EMMA HURD: Let’s look to the future now. We are a year on from the beginning of the revolution, where do you hope that Egypt and indeed the region that has been affected by this Arab Spring will be a year from now?

AMR MOUSSA: Well a year from now there will be further change and in my opinion that change is the name of the game. There will be no U-turns because the change is the hope of all citizens, we cannot continue to live and we should not live under the [inaudible] regimes and with the rule of oppression, telling the people what to do and how to feel.

ANDREW WILSON: Let’s take ourselves to another location in Cairo now and speak to Nader Omran from the Freedom and Justice Party, which is the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood. Thank you very much for joining us, Nader Omran. First of all, you know what they’re saying in the Western countries, that you are an Islamic party, that you have a history of violence, sectarian violence in your country and that this is a concern that Egypt will become a more closed country with you in government.

NADER OMRAN: First of all, we are Islamic but the history of terrorism in Egypt does not belong to FJP or Muslim Brotherhood, the terrorism has been there for tens of years, it is due to the harshness and practices of the old regime but now let’s talk about the future. We are now here to build this country and rebuild this country and have a new law, a country of law and just to apply the ambitions of the Egyptian people.

ANDREW WILSON: Many of the protestors in Tahrir Square and other parts of Egypt are saying that you made a deal with the military in order to win the votes that you did in the recent election and that things will stay the same with you in parliament.

NADER OMRAN: No, I don't think people in Egypt are saying that we are having a deal because we came to parliament and we won the majority in the parliament with free and fair elections and this could not be based upon a deal. Everybody was there, they were monitoring the elections and we were there with a majority and the people have chosen us and nobody from the protestors say that we have a deal with SCAF actually.

ANDREW WILSON: So can we look forward to Egypt becoming a civilian rule country rather than a military rule country?

NADER OMRAN: Of course, of course it will and there is good news today that the military council are going to end the state of emergency as of tomorrow which is good news and a good start for the new parliament which has started and on the eve of the first anniversary of the revolution so we are so optimistic about the future.

ANDREW WILSON: Talking to Amr Moussa just now, he said that the treaty with Israel is very important, that he recognises Egypt has a role to play, will you support a peace treaty with Israel?

NADER OMRAN: Yes, actually we have declared that we are going to respect all the treaties which Egypt has signed with other countries and if there is going to be reconsideration of something this should be discussed in the parliament based upon some requests afterwards but for now we are going to respect all the treaties we have signed.

ANDREW WILSON: Nader Omran, thanks very much indeed for joining us tonight on Sky News Debate. Nader Omran there. Now let’s see if we can put some of the points we picked up in the last few minutes to some of our guests. Alistair Burt, Egypt has been crucial in many ways as a link between the Middle East and the West, are they slipping away as a chief ally?

ALISTAIR BURT: No, I don't think so. I think you had some very clear answers there given from the Muslim Brotherhood and the Freedom and Justice Party, we are not afraid in this country of labels. We want to see how Islamic parties come to office, we want to see the principles on which they stand and how they govern. The answers given were very clear, the relationship with Israel is very important and that clearly is a key part of their future as well so I don't think there should be that assumption. We are in a very new situation, none of us know where all this will go, I think we have to take it a step at a time but these were free and fair elections, they did win 46% of the vote and I think we should take at this stage what they say very seriously and work with it.

ANDREW WILSON: Okay, the protestors in Tahrir Square, Simon Henderson, are wringing their hands and saying this is all back to square one again.

SIMON HENDERSON: I fear it is and certainly I don’t share the apparent optimism of Mr Omran, nor frankly did I think his answers were extraordinarily clear, I thought they were extraordinarily opaque on some issues.

ANDREW WILSON: He was pretty unequivocal about the Israel deal wasn’t he?

SIMON HENDERSON: Yes, there’s a nuance here. If we are going to discuss it, parliament can discuss it, I forget his actual words but that’s, we don’t want to go in that direction. I live in Washington DC and so to that extent I can wear the US hat today, the US is fearful of the whole of Middle East diplomacy falling apart because the Muslim Brotherhood, for reasons of just popularity and getting used to its new and very powerful role in the Egyptian parliament, will try to put this treaty to a new vote.

ANDREW WILSON: Do we trust the words of the new parliamentarians or do we doubt them?

LALEH KHALILI: I actually think that the Muslim Brotherhood is a fairly conservative, in the traditional meaning of that term, party and to some extent the fact that they are being supported by external forces that want status quo, such as for example the Bathali regime, to some extent also indicates that they are probably at least in the earlier months, they are not going to do anything to rock the boat. They want to consolidate their power in the parliament, they have said they are going to pay attention to domestic issues rather than anything else and in some ways I actually think they are going to ignore the will of the Egyptian people by ignoring the treaty altogether for now.

ANDREW WILSON: Maybe so, like the way that everyone does it at first isn’t it? Tariq Ramadan, down the line what do you think is the agenda of the FJP?

TARIQ RAMADAN: Well look, I think that once again what is important for us is to listen to what they are saying and to judge on what they are going to do and I think they are saying that they are going to respect the treaty but the main point is not this one, it is deeper than that. In all the region, if we are serious about democratic processes we need to understand that the people are not happy with the Israeli policy. At the end of the day, everything that has to do with democracy in the Arab world will have an impact not only on us being happy or not with what they are going to say about Israel, there is also a pressure on Israel to reassess its policy towards Palestinians because this is the main point. The main point is not to ask the people who are governing if they are serious, if they are serious about democracy they have to listen to the people. The people are not happy with what Israel is doing so let us be frank, don’t ask the people don’t touch the treaty and don’t change anything, Israel has to change its policy with Palestinians, this is the starting point of the democratic process in the region.

ANDREW WILSON: But at the same time you want to see them accepting something of the role they have in history and in current affairs.

ALISTAIR BURT: Let me pick up two things. Firstly, the FJP did not campaign on foreign affairs, they campaigned on domestic affairs. They have got to get the economy straight, they know that’s important, they have got to sort out the constitution. We would agree that what’s happened in the region absolutely means that this year is fundamental for a relationship between Israel and Palestine, we support the talks that are going on, it is very important that the underlying current of discontent with Israeli policy towards Palestine is very clear throughout the region. This is therefore the opportunity to seize the time and get that agreement.

ANDREW WILSON: Let’s hold that thought there and …

TARIQ RAMADAN: If I can may say something very quickly about the British policy there, if you are serious about anything which is to do with democracy, you have to support and be less unilaterally supporting Israel in all these discussions, this is the main point.

ALISTAIR BURT: Don’t talk about our …

SIMON HENDERSON: Gentlemen, excuse me, we are here to discuss the Arab Spring and we have already got on to Israel and Palestine, isn’t the topic rather larger?

ANDREW WILSON: That’s an interesting point because Israel does lurk there in the background, of course we all understand that, we need to move on to Libya first and then come back together as a group and see if we can’t join some of those dots together as well, so one pause if I may, Alistair, because I can see where we’re going here but I do want to bring in Libya before that falls behind as well because there in that country there has been fresh fighting today in Bani Walid amid claims that loyalists to the ousted Gaddafi regime have taken control of parts of the town. We need to speak to Ahmed Jibril who is the political advisor to the head of Libya’s National Transitional Council, also now Deputy Libyan Ambassador in London. Thanks very much for joining us Mr Jibril, we are now concerned I think it’s fair to say, that there are too many agendas at work in Libya at the moment and this puts too much pressure on your council.

AHMED JIBRIL: Yes, first of all let me talk about what happened in Bani Walid. I think the issue has been exaggerated. What happened exactly was the military council in Bani Walid tried to arrest a person who has been accused of committing crimes against civilians during the revolution and the relatives and friends of that person tried to protect him and this created a clash between the military council and the people. The situation is under full control, the council is talking with the representatives of Bani Walid and other people from the region and we are very confident that the situation will be solved.

ANDREW WILSON: But you know, we are noticing now that in Egypt they have the institutions at least, the ministries to fall back on, to rebuild with. Libya seems like a blank canvas, it’s a lot of work and you appear to have more enemies perhaps than you first thought.

AHMED JIBRIL: This is a problem facing the transitional government in Libya, the transitional government inherited a devastated country, you’re right. We don’t have proper institutions in Libya, we don’t have active civil society plus we have high expectations from the people in Libya and also from the international community. We must remember that Libya has witnessed a war for more than eight months, Libya didn’t go through a normal or peaceful transitional period, Libya went through a war yet the situation is relatively very stable. What we have seen since the beginning of the revolution until today promises us that the Libyan people are able and capable of bringing about a stable and democratic country.

ANDREW WILSON: Certainly we know you understand the importance of that but for example Saif Gaddafi still sits in a jail in Zintan and it’s not clear whether his fate will be a private matter or a national matter.

AHMED JIBRIL: I have seen Saif Islam myself and you must have read some of the reports that are published by some international organisations including Human Rights Watch. I think he has been treated very well, he receives good treatment from the people in Zintan, he will be transferred very soon to a prison in Tripoli and the NTC has announced many times that Saif Islam will face a fair trial in Libya and the world will see that the Libyan people are able and capable of treating Saif Islam better than the way Saif Islam and his father has treated the Libyan people.

ANDREW WILSON: Ahmed Jibril, thank you so much for joining us tonight on Sky News Debate. Well we’ve added Libya to our parcel of promise or parcel of woes, let’s see if we can blend those two dots together, they are neighbours after all. Laleh what do you make of the situation of these two neighbouring countries?

LALEH KHALILI: I think they are completely different sorts of trajectories that are happening here. As a social scientist I can say that what has happened in Libya is a complete revolution in the sense that everything has been redone in a sense whereas in Egypt of course the military is still in power and I suspect that it will try and hang on to power, at least in the economic sphere, certainly behind the scenes. So I think there are certain things that are different but on the other hand what I also see is that in Libya there is a lot more external interest because of course they have oil and one of your colleagues, former colleagues, Alistair, called for businessmen to immediately go to Libya afterwards, pack their bags and go there and we also know that Qatar and UAE have started looking at the oil businesses there which is kind of alarming because in a sense before any institutions are built the first thing that you’ve got are oil companies going in and external interests going in and putting down roots. It’s not a very exciting thing.

ANDREW WILSON: No point going in with all your businessmen if the country can’t organise a constitution and a new kind of government.

TARIQ RAMADAN: I think that this is the point, that we are too much obsessed with the political dimension of all what we are talking about here because I think it is completely right, I think you can’t compare the political dimension of what is happening in Egypt and in Libya. Now if we want to be serious about democratic processes in the region you have to come to economic stability and what is happening in Libya is completely different but still the west, the Europeans, the Americans, are there, they are working on the ground so you can’t just distinguish this from that, you have to understand that now the west and the European countries that were helping even NATO to go there and to change the regime are in charge, so we will have something which is a balanced approach between economic interest and political stability and it is exactly the same. The point is that even in Egypt, if we want to think about the army taking over, it’s not only a political dimension, it has to do with money, it has to do with political interest so let us have a comprehensive approach, not being obsessed with oh are we talking about democracy. There will be no democracy without economic stability.

ANDREW WILSON: It’s not all about politics, it’s about the people and it’s about their economies as well?

SIMON HENDERSON: I’m slightly staggered that we shouldn’t be bothered about Libya’s oil and gas. Well the sooner that gets back into full production, the more money they’ve got and they can actually pay for themselves to reconstruct, there’s lots of work to do. Egypt might not be as wealthy as Libya is in those terms but it has still got an important gas and oil sector and these things are what makes the world go round. Politics is …

LALEH KHALILI: But most of the money is going to go in the pockets of the foreign companies.
ANDREW WILSON: Is it just real politick, Suez and oil?

ALISTAIR BURT: If the economies of these countries fail, then whatever has been gained through the political revolutions will be affected. These countries need reconstruction of their industries. We have an interest in Libya but we’re also the largest foreign investor in Egypt, the United Kingdom is. These countries, we know what a big hit the economy has taken, you can’t deliver to your people domestically unless your economy has picked up too. Are we there? Yes, we are, with the full support of the Libyans. I was there just before Christmas, it is very important that they are doing this sort of work. I don’t know what makes you say we’re in charge there, they’re in charge there and that’s very important that this is Libyan led there but the fundamental point is getting the economies …

LALEH KHALILI: There was a bargain made, you put them in power and they’ll give you oil. That’s a very simplistic way of putting it but it is the way that it works.

ANDREW WILSON: That is an interesting point but …

ALISTAIR BURT: But this is very important, we had oil contacts with Gaddafi, if we had wanted to keep things as they were, we’d just have stayed as we were.

LALEH KHALILI: An unreliable client, that was the problem with Gaddafi, you couldn’t rely on him.

ANDREW WILSON: Time needs to move on and don’t forget there are other countries for us to deal with as well in our short hour, as we’re discovering. You can join us with this debate of course all the time online at skynews.com and also with our panel of Tweeters standing by, they’re using the hashtag #arabspringdebate. Do stay with us, we’re going to be asking in a moment will it take military intervention to end the bloodshed now in Syria?

END OF PART ONE

PART TWO

ANDREW WILSON: Hello again. So the Arab Spring has brought change but violent uprisings do continue. In Syria today the Gulf Arab Nations withdrew from the monitoring mission in protest over the continuing violence and have called now on the UN Security Council to force Syria to implement the Arab League peace plan. Well Sky’s Foreign Affairs editor, Tim Marshall, has spent the past two weeks in Syria and he sent this report from the capital, Damascus.

TIM MARSHALL: There are many different factions which make up the one Syria, commanded by President Bashar Assad. There are the Alawites, the Christians, the Druze, the Kurds and the majority Sunni Muslims, but when you look at the armed forces it’s a different picture. Of the 200,000 members of the professional army, more than 80% are from the Alawite sect, the same as the President and the two elite units, the Fourth Mechanised Division and the Republican Guard, they are almost entirely Alawite. The intelligence services appear solid, they haven’t cracked, there appear to be no defections from the political class and the defections from the army, probably overstated. The opposition talks about 20,000 soldiers having switched sides, that’s fanciful. It’s either in the hundreds or possibly the low thousands. But it’s not just that degree of force which keeps the regime in power, they do have popular support in many sections of society, especially amongst the Alawi, the Christians but also amongst some of the Sunni Muslims. People have a phrase here, they say [inaudible] ‘what’s the alternative?’ and they fear what could come next.

ytham al Manna, a leader of Syria’s opposition party, the National Co-ordination Committee, he’s in Paris for us tonight. Dr Haytham al Manna, thank you very much indeed for joining us. All this talk of military intervention, tell us your position. Qatari troops, American troops, no troops at all, where do you stand on this?

DR HAYTHAM AL MANNA: Our committee is against any form of military intervention because up to now we had a kind of unity inside the opposition and civilian forces in the street and any military intervention will divide us in two bodies, two gross bodies, one with and the other against and we know that if we look to a practical intervention we must think in a Turkish one and the Turkish intervention is refused by a very important factions of the Syrian society – Christians, minorities, the Sunni minorities, the Kurds population and all of these people are a very important part of the revolution today and we need first of all our unity. It is more important to us than any foreigner intervention.

ANDREW WILSON: Dr al Manna, there is no sign yet of any unity, you haven’t made any kind of agreement with the SNC, the other main opposition grouping. People are concerned that civil war will start, that there will be a fight and you’ll be fighting each other as well as the Assad regime.

DR HAYTHAM AL MANNA: Don’t take care, I think that up to now we are not in the position to speak about unity but we have the capacity to go on after the [inaudible] of the Arab League and now it is a very great effect to us if we don’t take the initiative and if we don’t prepare the Syrian General Congress for all forces of the opposition. This is now duty now, it is a letter for all democratic forces of the opposition that our committee appeal these people to be in the post of responsibility to the unification of our programme, our voice and our way of struggle.

ANDREW WILSON: Dr al Manna, what do you want President Assad to do now?

DR HAYTHAM AL MANNA: I think that the Syrian authorities are now in what we can call it, no gravity zone. They don’t know what they can do because they refuse in a part the Arab initiative and in the other part, they don’t have any political dialogue with the society and with the Syrian political forces. For that they are isolated and they must take the initiative to either Russia or other countries to find a position in the Arab initiative. They don’t have the choice.

ANDREW WILSON: Dr Haytham al Manna, thank you very much indeed for talking to us tonight from Paris, thank you very much. So what can be done to end this violence in Syria? Some of the opposition parties there saying they don’t want any sort of military presence on the ground, should the United Nations intervene, should we see Arab League forces perhaps being deployed instead? Jordan’s Foreign Minister, Nasser Judeh joins us now from Amman, thank you very much for joining us, Mr Judeh. You know your border is right there with Syria, you must be getting concerned now about the lack of progress or development.

NASSER JUDEH: Well we’ve been concerned for a while now, we have been following events for the last nine or ten months very, very closely and you’re absolutely right, being contiguous to Syria we have political and economic concerns and we are watching but we work within the consensus of the Arab League and there is a very clear and unequivocal Arab League initiative which we are hoping still that it would be implemented.

ANDREW WILSON: But not that clear now because Saudi has said it’s withdrawing its troops from the mission, the mission has been extended, now the Gulf Councils and the Qataris say that they are not sending troops, that’s hardly a united front now.

NASSER JUDEH: You are talking about troops, there are no troops, we are talking about monitors and the monitors are one component of the Arab League initiative. The initiative is comprehensive, it talks about free access by the media, it talks about an end to violence, withdrawing military presence and also calling on the United Nations to endorse the Arab League initiative as well as opening up to the opposition under the auspices of the Arab League. It’s many, many components, it’s a comprehensive plan and the monitors are just one component of it.

ANDREW WILSON: What would you like to see President Assad do now? Do you think he should go, do you think he should resign?

NASSER JUDEH: We have been saying for a while that comprehensive reforms have to be implemented, violence has to end and I think our position has been very clear on that.

ANDREW WILSON: And your position is, if you could just remind us Foreign Minister?

NASSER JUDEH: Our position is that the violence has to end, reform has to take place, the plan has to be implemented, opening up to the opposition, the peace initiative by the Arab League, an end to bloodshed, an end to civilians being targeted, we’ve been saying that all along.

ANDREW WILSON: And does President Assad have to go at this stage do you think?

NASSER JUDEH: This question has been addressed on many occasions and I think once again we go back to this is a choice of the Syrian people, we’re not going to interfere in that. That is a process that needs to take place immediately.

ANDREW WILSON: The trouble is, I asked originally Foreign Minister about you being so contiguous to Syria, this could start affecting your national security if things become more and more disturbed, and they are getting worse and worse by the day, you might have to find a tougher line. Also with disagreement in the Arab League, you may have to take a stronger leadership role from Amman.

NASSER JUDEH: I don't know that there is disagreement in the Arab League. I was at the Arab League Foreign Minister’s meeting the day before yesterday and there was almost unanimity there, I think one country which is Lebanon distanced itself from the resolution and there is another country, Algeria, that took reservation to one component of the peace plan and everybody else was on board so you are talking about 19 Arab countries, there are 22 Arab countries, Syria was included, 19 out of the 21 were unanimous in saying this is the plan that we’re going to have, so there is no disagreement in the Arab League on this and there is a full buy in by all the members of the Arab League that I’ve mentioned. But I think going back to the earlier part of your report on something the opposition member that you hosted said, the composition, the ethnic and religious composition of the Syrian population is what makes the whole situation very, very complex and yes, we are concerned because one possible scenario is anarchy and continued violence and of course, as a country that neighbours Syria, we have to be concerned.

ANDREW WILSON: Nasser Judeh, thanks so much for joining us this evening on Sky News, we do appreciate your time, thank you very much, Nasser Judeh there. Well we’ve added another country to our list since we last spoke, what do we make of what’s happening with the Arab League and what was described to us from Jordan as being decisiveness but what many of us take to be indecision?

LALEH KHALILI: Well I think that Syria is a tinderbox, both domestically and regionally because of course the reason why the Arab League is divided, despite the Minister’s protestations to the contrary, it is precisely because Saudi in this instance has its own very distinct interests and it really wants the Assad regime to go because of course Saudi is trying to balance itself against Iran and as we know Syria is a very close ally to Iran. The Saudis have called for troops for example to be sent, Arab troops to be sent, as have the Qataris, so I think that is quite an interesting division. The Jordanians are much more careful about this of course because as you yourself mentioned, they share a border, they are worried about loads of refugees coming across, they are worried about protests and unrest and instability in their own country and so I do think that is one of those situations that is somewhat intractable and part of the reason why it is intractable is because I think that on the one hand Assad has lost legitimacy. His brutality, the bloodshed, has made him lose legitimacy but on the other hand, I think the people who are not in the opposition or not out there protesting, are very nervous about the option that is going to put into place after him.

ANDREW WILSON: Tariq Ramadan, your take on this?

TARIQ RAMADAN: Yes, I think I completely agree with that. It is quite interesting, I think there are three levels. What is happening, what was said is what we have now with the Christians and the Kurds and we don’t know what is going to be the future with the opposition, so there is something which is an unknown future as the political forces within, which is a problem. The second point is the divisions, I’m sorry, just when I listened to the fact that the Arab League is united is just a joke because it’s not the case. What we can see now is that it is exactly the opposite but there are two other things which are important is that we can’t avoid talking about the external forces – Russia, China – saying we don’t want the regime to collapse, we want to remain and we are supporting and I think that there is something which is a competition between external forces in the region. The last point which is important, that we can’t avoid talking about it when you were talking about Iran, is the divide between Sunni and Shia, which is going to be one of the main challenges.

ANDREW WILSON: We will talk about that, the challenge for the future. What do you think from what you heard on the Syrian side of things?

SIMON HENDERSON: Well I absolutely agree, particularly that the Saudis have a vested interest here. They think if Syria goes, or rather if Bashar goes, Iran’s distant outpost in the Middle East goes as well and Iran’s influence in neighbouring Lebanon, which depends on access via Syria, is seriously diminished as well. I think that’s a good thing and I wish it would happen.

LALEH KHALILI: But Israel doesn’t want Bashar to go because even because of Hezbollah, even despite Hezbollah, Israel would like to see Bashar stay.

ANDREW WILSON: Alistair Burt, what do you make of … Saudi surprised us all with this withdrawal of its co-operation from the mission and then the Qataris followed with the rest of the Gulf Co-operation Council, what do you think is going on there?

ALISTAIR BURT: I think we’ve taken three countries and the discussion has showed how different they all are and the situation in Syria is so complex. There are indeed external forces, Russia and China are taking a very different view of Syria than they did for Libya, it’s true. The complexity is very clear and one of the things I think is very important is the division of the opposition. We have been talking to all of the opposition parties and we have been saying you have got to come together to give a coherent message to all in Syria, to the merchant classes about what is going to happen to them, crucially to the minorities and what’s going to happen to them, there’s got to be a sense of urgency so that they get that message over. Now we’re not hearing that and that sense of division therefore runs through everyone’s approach. We have called very clearly for Assad to go, we think the regime has indeed lost legitimacy and it should go. We back the Arab League proposals in terms of a transition but I think the next step is to go to the United Nations, we would like to see a strong condemnatory resolution including Russia and China, they’re vital but I’m afraid at present it is just more of the same.

ANDREW WILSON: Tariq Ramadan, does Assad have to go?

TARIQ RAMADAN: Yes, of course, it’s the end and it has to be clear. I think the voice that we have from the Arab League saying we want reform from within is too late, is wrong and it’s not what the people want there. I think it has to be clear and I think coming from the West it should be also clear that we have to support the democratic process there and talking to all the political forces but I agree as well that the problem is there are these divisions and we have no united …

ANDREW WILSON: The foreign minister wasn’t so enthusiastic about declaring that Assad should go even though it is a known position.

LALEH KHALILI: Jordanians have always been very, very cautious about what they’ve said about what happens in Syria and one can see why. Not only is there a question of shared borders but there’s also a very distinct sense that if you attack somebody else’s sovereignty they could also attack yours and so I think there is a kind of reciprocal respect despite all the qualifications etc that is going on in there.

SIMON HENDERSON: Don’t forget that people are dying every day and the great fear is not only does that continue but there’s even greater chaos. There’s enormous enmity between the Assad regime and the opposition but even within the country itself there is enormous challenges, historical rivalry. You could see multiples of the number of dead that we’ve seen so far, perhaps 5,000, in the settling out of scores post-Assad.

ANDREW WILSON: In a civil war with an unseemly fight of opposition movements trying to take Damascus and divide the spoils? That could turn very nasty.

ALISTAIR BURT: It could turn very nasty and I don’t think there’s any easy answer. You heard again from the element of the opposition, no intervention from outside because that again would perhaps give Assad exactly what he wants. He wants to turn this into an attack from the West against him and yet as Simon says, we see the deaths every day. The politicians locally have got to step up, there is a real urgency because of the killing and they have got to do their job to present a united front, an alternative to the regime.

ANDREW WILSON: Tariq Ramadan, twenty seconds, should we call for the United Nations now to help with Syria?

TARIQ RAMADAN: I don’t really trust anything that is going to happen there but I think once again there are two things that are important. It’s from within, people uniting forces and to come together but we can do more from the West without any military intervention. I think that we are not doing enough just to change the situation and to put the pressure on the regime … yes, sanctions.

LALEH KHALILI: Syria don’t trust the UN, let’s not forget that.

ANDREW WILSON: They don’t indeed. Let’s leave it with sanctions for the moment. Remember you can join the debate as well, the hashtag is #arabspringdebate, you can stay in touch with us online and we’ll be back in a moment talking to you about the wider picture and perhaps bringing up that subject of Western involvement again.

END OF PART TWO

PART THREE

ANDREW WILSON: So much has changed and much is still changing so how has that affected relations between the Arab states and the rest of the world? Let’s get the perspective from Sky’s Chief Correspondent Stuart Ramsey from Dubai.

STUART RAMSEY: Well certainly the protestors in Syria and Bahrain would consider themselves part of the Arab Spring but their revolutions, if you like, do have a different feel about them. There is a greater sense of sectarianism about what is happening now in Syria, it is a Sunni uprising in Bahrain, it is a Shia revolt against a Sunni government. It means that the international community and three countries will play a major role in what happens in the future – Qatar, because it’s shown itself supportive of revolution and its military and financial assistance looks certain to continue. The key to all of this though are the regional super powers, Saudi Arabia and Iran. The Saudis will always support the aspirations of the Sunnis, likewise the Iranians will support Shia, it means that the international community might find itself having to adjudicate.

ANDREW WILSON: Well let’s keep that international perspective for a moment. Senator George Mitchell, the former US Special Envoy for the Middle East Peace Process is in Washington for us, Senator Mitchell thanks very much indeed for joining us. We have to note that Bin Ali, Gaddafi, Mubarak, these are names that have all been swept away in the last year and they are all names that were supported, even held in power, by the West. Did we really get it wrong for so many years?

SENATOR GEORGE MITCHELL: Well obviously democracy is important to us and is something we should encourage but it’s not something we should impose and we should expect that different countries will develop at different paces and in different directions, so these are indigenous movements, I think we should be supportive, encouraging but all the while recognising that the future of Egypt will be decided by Egyptians and so on in the region.

ANDREW WILSON: And what if we don’t like the way it’s going? Can we keep our hands off this time? Can we, as you say, just support and encourage and leave it at that, or is there still a role that we should stand by for?

SENATOR GEORGE MITCHELL: I think there still is a role for the United States and the Western nations but it ought to be one that is respectful of democracy. I don’t see how you can say you believe in democracy but you will only accept the results when they produce someone that you like. I think we can however continue to exert substantial influence and I think that’s what we are trying to do.

ANDREW WILSON: But President Obama made a lot of promises when he first accepted the administration and a lot of them involved the Middle East. That didn’t last very long frankly and he has been accused of growing cold on the issue very quickly and losing interest in the region.

SENATOR GEORGE MITCHELL: I don't think that’s correct. First off, he didn’t make a lot of promises, he made a lot of … he identified a lot of objectives and aspirations for the United States and for the people of the region and we continue to be helpful and supportive where we can and to the degree that we can without trying to impose our will on others. I think the President’s view is that these are both promising opportunities and great challenges. I think the Arab Spring will be seen historically as one of the turning points in the history of the region although it will take some time to sort out and the results will be uneven but I think we who believe in democracy should continue to be supportive and encouraging where it can be the result of action by the people themselves.

ANDREW WILSON: Senator Mitchell, your last brief in the administration was Israel, Palestine, the peace process, do you still feel that is at the heart of everything we’re talking about now, if that isn’t resolved nothing can really turn comfortably around it?

SENATOR GEORGE MITCHELL: I would describe it as a central concern but it is clearly not the only issue in the region and we shouldn’t delude ourselves that if that conflict was somehow miraculously resolved tomorrow, all other problems would remain. There are many, many issues – the efforts of Iran to extend its influence into the Gulf by developing a nuclear weapon and by other means, the continuing conflict between Sunni and Shia which was touched on in the report just prior to this interview here, the continued differences between many of the countries in the region which have long and deep historical roots so it is a very important issue and one which I think we should continue to try to bring to a successful and fair conclusion but by itself it’s not the only issue nor will it solve all problems.

ANDREW WILSON: Senator George Mitchell, thank you very much indeed for joining us and thank you for your time. Well a couple of issues were raised out of that, first of all let’s just square away a couple of players that we’ve heard of recently that go quiet and loud a lot of the time which is Turkey and Qatar. What do we make of these roles? They are becoming players aren’t they?

ALISTAIR BURT: Qatar is fascinating, it is a very small state that is punching way above its weight and getting involved in a whole series of issues from Arab League, being very persuasive there, being very involved in Libya in backing one of the militia groups, involved in Afghanistan now having the Taliban address there. This is a country that wants to be engaged and wants to be involved and is finding an opportunity through its activism to play a very serious role. So far we think the activities have been beneficial, they’re driving things forward, they’re not the only player but they are a remarkable new influence on the scene.

ANDREW WILSON: Simon Henderson, Turkey, a positive role to play?

SIMON HENDERSON: Well Turkey is trying to find itself and find a role in the region. The thing that I find about Turkey which people often ignore is there is enormous historical antipathy between Turkey and the Arab world which in current reporting of the situation is hardly mentioned at all. I think this will always limit Turkey’s potential role in affecting things perhaps in Egypt and also in Syria.

ANDREW WILSON: As an Islamic state it can be a bridge to Europe can’t it?

SIMON HENDERSON: Do we need violins, dreams? No, no, no, Turkey is going through an identity crisis, it’s trying to sort out where it is. It doesn’t know whether it’s European, it doesn’t know whether it’s Middle Eastern, it doesn’t know whether …

LALEH KHALILI: I completely disagree, I think Turkey has well sorted out those issues. Once it was rejected by the countries in Europe it decided to actually play a regional role and it is very clear on what it wants to do. It has had one of the largest growth rates in the region, in the world actually and …

SIMON HENDERSON: It’s about to go pear shaped.

LALEH KHALILI: Not only that, this is quite extraordinary, there is actually labour migration from Europe into Turkey, this is unheard of. So this is a country which is … of course there is an Ottoman history but there is also quite a lot of sympathy towards the way the Turks have conducted themselves, towards the position they have taken vis a vis Israel and Gaza, towards the way in which the Turkish parliament for example voted against the US using Incirlik base against Iraq, so there is a lot of sympathy for Turkey in the Arab world. Of course they don’t want intervention by Turkish troops, I don't think the Arabs want intervention really by anybody and so that sense it is quite interesting to see where Turkey goes. Qatar I think is interesting on another level. I think part of their activism comes from sitting cheek by jowl next to Saudi and there’s a long history of the two countries being at loggerheads with one another. At the moment there is a rapprochement going on which is part of the reason why the two of them can work together in the way that they are throughout the Arab world. It is interesting to see what happens if they fall out again.

TARIQ RAMADAN: One thing about this, because I really think that Qatar is playing an important role, not only from a political viewpoint close to the Saudi regime but also close to the United States of America. I think we need to get this right and the second point is don’t forget that Al Jazeera was playing so important role in anything that we are talking about. The last point that I wanted to make here is when we are hearing that we are supporting the people and the democratic process, you are talking to Arabs and the Arabs have memory, so the Egyptians and Tunisians, they know how much the Americans and even the European countries were supporting the dictatorial regimes for centuries, that is important …

LALEH KHALILI: Hammas has completely ignored the democratic aspirations.

TARIQ RAMADAN: Yes, exactly but one point that is important here is that we were talking about Qatar, we were talking about Turkey. Turkey, when we say the Israeli Palestinian conflict is not so important, you can just see how the Prime Minister Erdogan, when he came back to the region in Egypt, how he is now famous and supported by the people because of what he took as a stance against Israel.

ANDREW WILSON: We have talked so much about Sunni and Shia and our viewers and our readers, we understand there is a Sunni and Shia element to so much of what goes on and a few of us have mentioned it here today. How important is this great divide in the Middle East, the Sunni and the Shia?

ALISTAIR BURT: Huge. Huge and getting more important I think. The worry we have, that the United Kingdom has, is that other conflicts are now starting to be dominated by a sectarian interest and issues that would have been complicated in any case are now getting sharper and because of course you have the tussle between the Iranians who are busy supporting any Shia activity anywhere which is seen to be disruptive by Sunni elements and you’re starting to worry about are you getting proxy situations. It’s complicated enough anyway and there are others better qualified to talk about Sunni Shia divide than me but it is of huge importance.

LALEH KHALILI: I think it is manufactured, I think it is one of those classic divide and rule things. It is very comfortable for Saudi to say Sunni Shia or to use the discord …

ALISTAIR BURT: So the Iranians aren’t active …?

LALEH KHALILI: Of course the Iranians have also their own interests but it is very important to note that for example in other instances where there have been conflicts, they have taken the strategic interests into account and that is something that is very…

SIMON HENDERSON: The key point on the Sunni and Shia is Bahrain. I’ve been in Bahrain twice during the last year and am probably going there in another month or so for a third visit. This is where the action is, this is where Iran and Saudi Arabia are fighting it out with this overlay of a religious difference, Sunni versus Shia, and this is what motivates particularly the Saudis who think the whole of this Arab Spring democracy is a load of nonsense. The big issue is Iran and the threat that Iran represents and this is …

TARIQ RAMADAN: I think it is manufactured in one way. It is true that on the ground you have the Saudi playing with this, the Iranian regime playing with this and it didn’t stop, now it started even the Iraq/Iran war, this is why it started but the problem is the western countries are also using this with the Saudi, sometimes by putting some pressure on the Iranians and saying the whole business is about this divide. At the end of the day you will find the Shia and Sunni can come together when it comes to the interests of the region and one of the main things is the Israeli Palestinian conflict so let us … I really think that sometimes we are creating and overestimating what is happening here. At the end of the day it is true that it’s a challenge for the Muslims but my main point here is very importantly to understand that other players now are here. China and Russia and India and Turkey are going to play a role in the region.

ANDREW WILSON: I have to thank you all for participating in this debate and I think that we have agreed that China and Russia still have a role to play but Qatar and Turkey should be watched and co-operated with as much as possible because of the influence that they provide and I think we are all agreed also that President Assad really has reached the end of his line. Well that’s all from our debate now on the future of the Arab Spring although there is a very lively debate continuing online and on Twitter. So just a quick reminder that a brand new Arabic news service, Sky News Arabia, is launching this spring, 19 foreign bureaux from Islamabad across to the west, the website will be available in February and the TV channel will launch later in the spring. See you later.