ANY QUOTES USED MUST BE ATTRIBUTED TO MURNAGHAN, SKY NEWS

DERMOT MURNAGHAN: Now the Syrian civil war has been going on for nearly three years now and for most of that time there have been calls for President Assad but he’s going nowhere. So as the main Syrian opposition group agrees to attend a new round of talks with members of the Syrian government, should it be accepted that President Assad still has a role in the country’s future? I am joined now from Banbury in Oxfordshire by former British Ambassador to Syria, Sir Andrew Green and in the studio by Syrian Democracy campaigner, Ribal Al-Assad, his name is no coincidence, he’s the first cousin of President Assad. A very good morning to you both and if I can stay with you, Ribal Al-Assad, three years of war has not dislodged President Assad, shouldn’t it be accepted at the Geneva Two talks starting on Wednesday that you have to talk to his regime and accept that he is remaining in position?

RIBAL AL-HASSAD: Well unfortunately we will have to see the [inaudible] today and we have called on him many times, the President has called on him many times but the situation has changed today. Today on the ground we have the Syrian government on one side and on the other side we have all those Islamic groups. As you know there is the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria, there is Al-Nusra Front, there’s the Islamic Front who are the Free Syrian Army actually and we have, that’s the choice we have. It is between the ruling regime and between those Islamic groups. Even today at the Geneva Two, why do I always say that, I have been saying for a while now that it is dead from the beginning because we have only brought on one side the Syrian regime and on the other side we have the Islamic National Coalition who doesn’t represent the Syrian people. I mean many other opposition groups were asked to come into the coalition but this is unacceptable. We don’t have to come, any other group does not have to come under the Islamic Coalition.

DM: Just on your analysis there of the flourishing of extremist groupings, Al-Qaeda linked groupings there, Assad could argue – as he always has done – that I genuinely am now fighting international terrorism, terrorists with international ambitions and you in the international community should be supporting me and not telling me go.

RIBAL AL-ASSAD: Yes, he has played this card very smartly and everyone has fallen into his trap. If you remember the last time I was here, I have been saying for three years now, you have to be careful, this is the thing that the Syrian regime … this is the only way that the Syrian regime would survive actually, by saying that they are fighting Al-Qaeda and other Islamist extremist groups but unfortunately Saudi and other countries have fallen into his trap and have gone backing those Salafi extremists, those Muslim Brotherhoods and all those other Islamic groups and leaving the majority of the Syrians.

DM: Okay, well let’s see what Sir Andrew has to say about those talks. Sir Andrew, Geneva Two, confusingly in Montreux, on Wednesday and now the opposition that are going there are saying the only thing we are interested in talking about is the transition of power and the Assad regime saying I am definitely not going anywhere. Are they doomed from the start?

SIR ANDREW GREEN: Well it is going to be very difficult indeed. This can only be the start of a long process, it is something that the Russians and the Americans appear to be collaborating, at least to some extent but the reality is we’re not going to get a really serious negotiation until either one side is facing defeat or all sides are exhausted and we are some distance from that. Let me just say that I don’t think the issue is President Assad himself, to some extent he is just a figurehead, if he went tomorrow he’d be replaced by some ghastly Alawite general. The issue is the continuation of the regime in Damascus, an Alawite-led regime and with many other supporters from the minorities in Syria and their view is that they simply cannot afford to lose power because the reality is, if you have a dictatorship you can’t have a transition. Either you run the secret police or you don’t and they know that and they know that if they lose they’ll be slaughtered probably. So they are going to fight to the end and we shouldn’t assume anything else. …

DM: Sir Andrew, given the growth of Islamic fundamentalist fighters in Syria, does the regime’s argument have any traction that that is what they combating there?

SIR ANDREW GREEN: Well I think it does have some traction and it certainly has some traction with the Russians. Now don’t forget that the people that have power in Damascus are the Russians and the Iranians and we will not now, nobody now will be able to remove that Alawite regime by force because they have the clear support of the Russians who can supply the weapons and of the Iranians who can supply the manpower, if they need to and I think we have to recognise that. The Russian view is that if this regime goes down, then there will be chaos in Syria – which there certainly will be – and that out of that chaos will emerge Islamic extremist movements who will be very prominent, if not actually in power and they will not accept that because they think that will be a big threat to the soft underbelly of Russia. They’re not having it, the Iranians are not having it for different reasons, so we might as well get used to the idea.

DM: Let me put that to Ribal Al-Assad, that scenario. The west should be concerned about that scenario as well, do you think that could happen?

RIBAL AL-ASSAD: Of course it could and this was … you know, when the United States decided not to strike Syria, this is exactly where Saudi Arabia had asked their groups who formed actually the Free Syrian Army, to lead the Free Syrian Army and form the Islamic Front, Jaysh Al-Islam, Jaysh Al-Mujahadeen, the Army of Islam, the Army of Mujahadeen, who are all Salafi extremist groups. We have to see that it would have been the biggest mistake to strike because this would have really given those groups, this would have placed them into power.

DM: Well, thank you very much Ribal Al-Assad and our thanks to Sir Andrew Green as well.