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DERMOT MURNAGHAN: So British military action in Syria could become a reality with more than 50 Labour MPs as I’ve just reported prepared to support intervention it’s thought.  Meanwhile Russia says it is stepping up its air strikes in the region.  Moscow has been accused of running a fundamentally flawed campaign in Syria with the United States warning it risks making the crisis there much worse.  Well I’m joined now by Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the former Secretary General of NATO and Prime Minister of Denmark, he’s in Copenhagen.  A very good morning to you and thank you very much indeed for joining us.  First of all Mr Rasmussen, I’d like your overview on just how dangerous the situation is becoming between NATO and Russia, taking in its actions in Syria, the overflights of Turkey but not just that, also the situation in the Baltics and other areas.  

ANDERS FOGH RASMUSSEN: Obviously it is a very dangerous situation taking into account that Russia has violated Turkish air space on several occasions and that is a violation of NATO air space so of course it is potentially a risk of a conflict.  

DM: And a risk of conflict, as was said in the old Cold War days, a mistake perhaps leading to that, an accident, some small incident spiralling out of control.

ANDERS FOGH RASMUSSEN: Yes, well I do hope that military to military contact could prevent such incidents from escalating into such a very dangerous situation.  Turkey and NATO have issued very clear warnings that the Russians must stop this intimidation of NATO allies.  

DM: But to understand what Putin wants, what Russia wants, one first has I suppose to look at the history of the expansion of NATO and really has Putin been looking for this kind of opportunity since NATO started recruiting the former Warsaw Pact countries back in the late 90s?

ANDERS FOGH RASMUSSEN: Well it’s not an accurate description of what was happening that we recruited former Communist states as new members of NATO.  Actually they decided themselves to apply for membership, they became flourishing democracies and of course they have an inherent right to decide their alliance affiliation themselves and actually they wanted to become members of NATO and the European Union and after fulfilling the necessary criteria, they were accepted as members, which is normal.  

DM: But does Mr Putin see it that way and do you think, as I say, that has rankled ever since it started happening, whether they were asked or requested?

ANDERS FOGH RASMUSSEN: Well the fact is that Russia is actually the main beneficiary of our enlargement policies because due to the enlargement of NATO and the European Union we have created a zone of prosperity and stability in Central and Eastern Europe and when you have a look at trade figure and investment figures you will see that Russia has benefited greatly from that zone of stability and prosperity and furthermore for centuries Russia has seeked stability along its Western borders and that’s exactly what we have created and NATO does not constitute a threat to Russia in any way.

DM: I hear you loud and clear but do you think President Putin and others in Russia see it that way?  

ANDERS FOGH RASMUSSEN: No, apparently they see it quite differently.  We have tried to reach out to Russia on several occasions.  Back in 1997 we allowed Russia to establish a kind of embassy or permanent representation in the middle of NATO headquarters in Brussels.  In 2002 we established something very special, namely a NATO/Russia council to serve as a forum for consultation and joint decisions.  Russia is the only country outside NATO with whom we have such a council so I think we have done a lot to reach out to Russia and include them in the Euro/Atlantic security architecture.  

DM: So what is your view, back to the specific, clearly President Putin is probing for weaknesses with those overflights in particular of NATO member Turkey and if they don’t stop or if they even increase, how should NATO respond?   

ANDERS FOGH RASMUSSEN: It is very clear how Turkey would respond.  If Turkey’s airspace is violated there is a clear risk that the Turks will shoot down such aircraft.  Also if it is a Russian aircraft Turkey will of course be backed by its NATO allies.  

DM: To what extent?  

ANDERS FOGH RASMUSSEN: Well that depends on the concrete situation, it’s a case by case decision but in general it’s clear that a violation of NATO airspace could constitute what we call an Article Five situation. You will recall that the famous Article Five states that we consider an attack on one, an attack on all.  

DM: I do so therefore back to that earlier point I made, isn’t there then a danger of rapid escalation?  If the Turks shoot down a Russian aircraft it is pretty unlikely that the Russians wouldn’t respond, then NATO gets involved.  

ANDERS FOGH RASMUSSEN: Obviously that would be a very dangerous escalation of the whole situation and this is also the reason why both Turkey and NATO have issued clear warnings to the Russians to cease the intimidation of Turkey and the violations of Turkish airspace.  In general the Russian military presence in Syria is a dangerous escalation of the whole situation and it complicates the situation because it serves to save Assad, sacrifice the moderate opposition and fuel the recruitment of Islamic State fighters.  

DM: But Russia says it is only filling that vacuum that has been left there for the last four years since the Syrian situation has festered.  With the benefit of hindsight, either collectively or individually, should NATO members have got more involved there earlier?

ANDERS FOGH RASMUSSEN: Well the fact is that you cannot save Assad and at the same time fight Islamic State because the majority of nations and peoples in the Middle East want to get rid of Assad.  You can’t save Assad and stop the bloodshed in Syria because it is the brutality of the Assad regime that started the whole thing in the first place back in 2011 so that’s why it is very hard to see the Assad regime as part of a long term sustainable solution in Syria.  

DM: And just finally Mr Rasmussen, can I ask you as a former Prime  Minister of course of key EU member Denmark, your view now on the UK’s attempt to have some kind of renegotiation in terms of its relationship with the European Union given what is going on, much of the problem sparked by the Syrian refugee crisis, people coming from there and many other countries as well.  Is the EU really in the mood for a big renegotiation with the United Kingdom to change its relationship fundamentally?

ANDERS FOGH RASMUSSEN: Well I hope that the outcome of this whole process will be that the United Kingdom stays as a member of the European Union, obviously after some necessary reforms and on that reform agenda I don't think the UK is alone, other EU countries might support requests for reforms of the European Union but the European Union needs the United Kingdom as a member so I hope an arrangement can be found that will allow the United Kingdom to stay as a member of the European Union.  

DM: But there must be elements of frustration building in places like Denmark as well, President Hollande of France voiced it last week when he said, in reaction to my former guest there, to a speech by the UKIP leader Nigel Farage, well if you don’t like the EU then do leave.  

ANDERS FOGH RASMUSSEN: Well at the end of the day of course it is for the British people to decide what is going to happen.  I express my view coming from Denmark that we need the UK approach to EU policies so it would significantly weaken the European Union on the world stage if the UK were to leave the European Union so I really do hope that negotiations will lead to an outcome that can be accepted by the British people as well as the European Union.  

DM: Anders Fogh Rasmussen, great to have your thoughts, thank you very much indeed for sparing the time to talk to us.