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DERMOT MURNAGHAN: Now then tomorrow a so-called fatal motion in the House of Lords could call to a halt the government’s cuts to tax credits and with it potentially cause a constitutional crisis.  Convention says that peers don’t decide financial matters and they have been warned not to break with that tradition by the Prime Minister.  I am joined now by the Liberal Democrats Chief Whip in the Lords, Lord Dick Newby and Peter Riddell, the Director of the Institute for Government and from Norfolk, the former Cabinet Secretary and now cross-bench peer, Lord Robin Butler.  A very good morning to you all gentlemen.  Lord Newby, what are you minded to do, what’s your party minded to do and of course there is another way isn’t there?  There is a motion of regret, a shot across the bows.  

LORD NEWBY: Yes, we have got a fatal motion down so we’ll obviously vote for.  The problem with a regret motion is that it is in effect saying we are really sorry this is happening the government sort of sails on.  This is an unusual situation and the reason why we will be doing it, apart from the policy reasons – it has a very devastating effect on millions of families – is you would normally expect a change of this magnitude to come through in a piece of primary legislation i.e. a finance bill or a benefits bill.  The government have put it in a statutory instrument to get it through without proper debate, in a rush and that’s why we feel, we certainly have the formal power to do it but that’s why we are going to take the action we are tomorrow.  

DM: Let’s get Lord Butler’s view listening to all this.  Lord Butler, are we heading then for a constitutional crisis?   

LORD BUTLER:  Well I’m afraid we may be.  It’s not just unusual this, it’s unprecedented, nothing like this has happened since 1911 and so it really would be a most extraordinary – Kenneth Clark called it in the House of Commons last week and astonishing constitutional innovation and I think that’s what it would be.  Even when the government has been defeated on a statutory instrument, never on a fiscal matter, never on a … one as important as this.   

DM: There are two things there to put to you, Lord Newby, constitutional crisis as we heard, you could easily spark this and of course as a Liberal Democrat, you don’t believe in the House of Lords.  

LORD NEWBY: There is only a constitutional crisis if the government overreacts so that’s the first thing.  The second thing, as far as the House of Lords is concerned we tried to change it.  If we’d had our way in the last parliament we wouldn’t be facing this kind of issue in quite the same way because we’d have an elected House of Lords but the Labour party and the Tory party stopped us changing it and now they don’t like us playing by the rules that we’re left with.  That’s just the position which we find ourselves in.   

DM: Lord Butler, there we are, do you think the Prime Minister would be within his rights then as Peter Riddell was saying there, 150 new Conservative peers to force this through?  Well not within his rights but that’s what’s being discussed, that’s what we’re hearing.  

LORD BUTLER: Lord Newby has really just given away the game because it would be ironic if the Lib Dem party who believe that the House of Lords doesn’t have democratic authenticity because it’s not elected, it’s only appointed, if they then were to defeat through an appointed House the elected House of Commons. I can’t see how the Lib Dems could defend a position of that sort.

DM: Quickly on that, Lord Newby.  

LORD NEWBY: The House of Lords is a revising chamber and has the power to ask the government to think again, that’s its purpose.  If we were take …   

DM: Not to destroy its legislation.  

LORD NEWBY: Well we’re not destroying its legislation, we’re saying think again about this and come back with something else.   

DM: I just want to come back to you Lord Butler because we are running out of time, just turning to Iraq and your inquiry into some of the flawed intelligence, what do you make of Tony Blair apparently apologising for that and the post-invasion planning?

LORD BUTLER: Well of course he has never apologised for the invasion and I understand why.  I have always said that he sincerely believed the world would be a better place without Saddam Hussein.  I think also that he sincerely  believed that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction and was trying to develop a nuclear weapon.  What I criticised was the way in which we were told about the intelligence and we weren’t told what the Ministers had been told which was that the base for the intelligence was very sporadic and patchy.  We were told that Tony Blair said ‘I believe without any doubt that Saddam has got weapons of mass destruction’.  The intelligence didn’t justify that.  

DM: Okay, thanks for that Lord Butler.  Lord Newby, you can’t tell the tide not to come in, this is going to happen some way shape or form?

LORD NEWBY: It may be a different tide.  

DM: And you will try to change the course of that.  Thank you very much Lord Newby, Peter Riddell and Lord Butler.