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DERMOT MURNAGHAN: People in Greece have begun voting in a referendum that could determine the country’s future in the eurozone.  Greek people are being asked whether to accept a bail out deal which would mean further austerity in exchange for more rescue loans.  The country’s leader, Alexis Tsipras, is urging his people to vote no.  Well Miranda Xafa joins me from Athens, she is a former member of the IMF executive board and a former chief economist to the Office of the Prime Minister in Greece, a very good afternoon to you.  So if the Greek people do follow Mr Tsipras’s advice and vote no, what might follow?

MIRANDA XAFA: Mr Tsipras will be in a very difficult position either way because with a no vote he would have to come up with a deal with 48 hours as he has promised the Greek people but the chicken game he has been playing has already ended with suicide, the banks are closed, there are capital controls, cash is rationed to €50 per person per day and the economy is imploding so he is not going to get a better deal from the Europeans and I very much doubt he can secure any deal within 48 hours.  

DM: How much longer do you think the Greek people can take it, particularly with the banks closed and perhaps not reopening then on Tuesday?  

MIRANDA XAFA: The banks will not reopen until there is an agreement in place so it may be several days, perhaps even weeks.  Mr Tsipras really blew it, he had the opportunity and the mandate to come up with a better deal for the Greek people but he blew it because of the incompetence, lack of preparedness and dogmatism of his government so now he has his back against the wall, he called his referendum because he couldn’t get the agreement through his own party as his Deputy Minister, Mr Tsakalotos admitted on CNN the other day so instead of asking for a yes vote in order to strengthen his hand within his own party, within his internal position, the anti-euro opposition, he is calling for a no vote which will just weaken his hand within his own party.  As every game theorist knows, you have to act rationally and make credible threats and Mr Tsipras has done neither.  

DM: Do you think the result could be, we hope not but more unrest on the streets?  

MIRANDA XAFA: Yes, one option is that Mr Tsipras leaves office in a helicopter like Mr de la Rua did in Argentina in 2001.  

DM: Wow.  But the economic damage, it’s already done isn’t it?  What prospect has the Greek economy of ever recovering, certainly in the foreseeable future?  

MIRANDA XAFA: Well I think the economy is sinking into depression, not just recession.  Tourists are cancelling their bookings, this is the high season and even tourists who are in Greece now are leaving.  It is very difficult to import anything including raw materials so exports are collapsing, output is collapsing.  People don’t spend money because of all the uncertainty, they don’t know what will happen tomorrow so this is an economy that is imploding as we speak.  

DM: So a solution, the obvious one has been oft mentioned, and we know that the polls tell us that whichever way the Greek people vote in this referendum they don’t want it to happen but it is an exit from the euro.  

MIRANDA XAFA: The vast majority of the Greek people want to stay in the euro and Mr Tsipras has no mandate to lead the country out of the euro.  In the referendum opinion is divided about 50/50, we’ll see what the outcome will be but when people are asked to say whether they want to stay in the eurozone, 80% say they want to stay so Mr Tsipras has no mandate to take the country out of the euro area.  

DM: Miranda Xafa, thank you very much indeed for your time.