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DERMOT MURNAGHAN:  Now the UK would face economic rupture if it leaves the European Union, that according to the new Work and Pensions Secretary Stephen Crabb.  Meanwhile the former Irish Prime Minister as you may just have seen, Bertie Ahern, has warned leaving the EU would be regressive and negative in every way for Britain and Ireland.  Well I’m joined now by Theresa Villiers, the Northern Ireland Secretary.  She is one of the Cabinet Ministers who are backing the Vote Leave campaign, a very good morning to you Secretary of State.  Let’s just deal first of all with that warning from your colleague Stephen Crabb about how reckless and economically damaging it could be for Britain to leave the European Union.

THERESA VILLIERS: Well I’m afraid that’s in stark contrast to what the Prime Minister has been saying for many weeks, that of course we can be a success outside the European Union.  I think we would flourish because we’d get back the right to run our own trade policy, that means being able to make deals with crucially important economies like the US, like China, like India, deals which the EU has had decades to deliver and so far hasn’t.   That’s good for jobs whereas staying in means inevitably we face the EU asking for more power and more money year after year, that’s the real risk, that’s the thing that’s bad for jobs and prosperity.

DM: But it is just matters of opinion really isn’t it?  I mean we’ve had the IMF no less warning on the danger side and there is no doubt for instance for things like sterling, the pound would take a hit in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote and that would have an economic effect.  

THERESA VILLIERS: Well I’m afraid the IMF has got things seriously wrong in the past and when the Chairman of the Bank of England was asked about risks to the UK economy in parliament recently he was very clear that it’s the external risks, particularly relating to China, which are the significant ones rather than the domestic ones.

DM: We’re going to hear from the Treasury, the government assessment on the economic side apparently tomorrow which is going to ascribe possible recession, hit to exports, rising prices, jobs at risk – I mean it puts you in a difficult position doesn’t it, you have to disagree with your own Treasury?

THERESA VILLIERS: Well the fact that we all have effectively a free vote on this does lead to awkward situations but the government has made it clear that it’s not a neutral bystander so people will judge the statements of the Treasury on that basis.  The crucial thing is that we have the opportunity to vote to restore our democracy, to go back to a position where the people that we elect at a general election or a devolved election are the people who are making our laws.

DM: Do you think it is a misuse of the government’s powers?  I’m thinking particularly about this leaflet that has been delivered through almost every doorstep in the United Kingdom, the £9.3 million spent on that?

THERESA VILLIERS: Well obviously it makes the campaign one sided.  The establishment and others line up in these debates in favour of the EU position but if you look back these are the sort of people who said it was essential that we join the ERM, these are the sort of people who predicted doom if we kept our own currency, they were wrong then and they are wrong now.

DM: The Prime Minister and the Chancellor weren’t yet they’re backing the leaflet and presumably backing the Treasury.

THERESA VILLIERS: Certainly many people within the establishment, within the Remain campaign, people like Peter Mandelson, were exactly the sort of people who said that it was vitally important that we join the euro and if we didn’t jobs would be lost, inward investment would disappear overnight and universally all the experts say we would never have been able to recover from the economic shock of the financial crisis as strongly or as quickly if we joined the euro.

DM: So are you, we heard this almost before the formal campaign got underway, are you being denied as a Cabinet Minister use of civil servants, access to documents, if you want to use that information and those resources to further the Vote Leave campaign?

THERESA VILLIERS: Well obviously I don’t have access to resources further the Vote Leave campaign from the government but I can reassure you that I see all the papers and documents that I need to carry out my role as Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, that’s the crucial thing.

DM: But it’s just that, as you described it there, the suspension on this issue of collective responsibility, you obviously think it was wise of the Prime Minister to allow that to happen but if he hadn’t would you have resigned?

THERESA VILLIERS: I think to be honest I would have had to but I very, very much welcome the fact that I didn’t face that choice.

DM: But you were prepared to take that step, did you make the Prime Minister aware of that before he made the decision?

THERESA VILLIERS: I didn’t have to because I went, I had several conversations with him, I explained that this was a long standing issue of concern for me and I really did feel that I had to be on the leave side of the debate and he explained that he wanted his Cabinet to be able to express their views.  Obviously he very much would have liked me to be on the other side but he did make it clear that he would allow cabinet ministers to follow their consciences on this issue so the issue of resignation never had to be discussed.

DM: Okay and the issue of resignation.  What do you make of that from Ken Clark the other day that if your view prevails, if the Brexit side wins the Prime Minister wouldn’t last 30 seconds?

THERESA VILLIERS: I completely disagree with Ken on this issue and some others.  I think the Prime Minister’s position should be absolutely secure, it’s vitally important that he stays regardless of the vote in the referendum because he’s a great Prime Minister.

DM: But should he be the one then that negotiates the Brexit deal?  Everyone on all sides of the debate knows how complex that’s going to be but his heart wouldn’t really be in it would it?

THERESA VILLIERS: Absolutely he should be the one that leads our negotiations on the Brexit deal.  I think those negotiations will go well, the reality is that the EU sells far more to us than we do to them, it’s in their interests that we retain a strong trading relationship, a free trade deal.

DM: Well David Davis, your colleague in this campaign, has been saying well the Prime Minister shouldn’t be the one in the event of a Brexit vote to negotiate that deal, he should let somebody from the Leave side, a senior figure, perhaps yourself, a senior figure from the Cabinet negotiate the deal.

THERESA VILLIERS: I believe absolutely that David Cameron is the right man to take us out of the European Union and negotiate the excellent deal I think that we will get.

DM: And stay on as Prime Minister for several years?

THERESA VILLIERS: Absolutely, yes.  

DM: Okay, let’s move to your own brief because there’s an awful lot of questions coming from the people of the North of Ireland, of people in the Republic of Ireland and indeed people in the whole of the UK about what would happen in the event of a Brexit to that border, the only land border the United Kingdom has with a European Union country, would it have to become more secure?

THERESA VILLIERS: I don’t believe arrangements need to change. I believe the land border we share with Ireland can be as free flowing after a Brexit vote as it is today.  Special status for Irish citizens and a common travel area allowing free movement for Irish citizens predates our membership of the EU by decades and there is no reason why it can’t continue in the same way after we leave the EU.

DM: But we therefore in the United Kingdom are reliant upon the Irish Republic carrying out stringent border checks on people who have the right to travel within the EU, it remaining of course within the European Union, but they carry out those checks because once they are in Ireland, in the south of Ireland, they can travel to any part of the UK without being checked.

THERESA VILLIERS: Well of course it’s important, it will be important after a Brexit as it is important now, that the external borders of the Common Travel Area are properly policed but those risks are managed effectively today and they would be in the future.  Remember, if we had individuals who came in from the land border who weren’t entitled to enter the UK, we have internal mechanisms to deal with that form of illegal immigration.  Controlling our borders doesn’t necessarily mean reinstituting border …

DM: But where are the internal mechanisms?  They’re not, as you just said, they’re not on the border with the Irish Republic, are they then on Great Britain, are they at Stranraer on the ferry from Larne?

THERESA VILLIERS: No, the measures we had to deal with illegal working, illegal immigration, access to housing, these kind of mechanisms which apply whether it’s in Northern Ireland or the whole of the United Kingdom to ensure that people in this country have the right to be here.  You don’t need border checks or checks between Northern Ireland and Great Britain to make this system work, you can have a border that operates broadly as it does now.

DM: So Nigel Lawson who was speaking last week and Dominic Raab indeed, another member of the Brexit campaign, the Leave campaign, both saying on different programmes last week, both saying that there would need to be some kind of checks because this is a back door.  Nigel Lawson said, Lord Lawson said that there would have to be some kind of border controls coming in.

THERESA VILLIERS: Well I think the Leave campaign has since sought to correct that.  I think Lord Lawson was misunderstood, the reality is it is in everyone’s interests that we maintain the current arrangements in relation to the border and the Irish Ambassador, in giving evidence to MPs recently in parliament, made it very clear that the Irish government would have that same goal in mind, to ensure that we continue to have free flow of good and people across that border.

DM: So no checks at all, just to be absolutely explicit Secretary of State, no checks at all on the Northern Irish border with the Republic of Ireland?

THERESA VILLIERS: Yes, that’s right, we don’t need to institute border checks if we have a Brexit vote.

DM: And you would have no security concerns then?  There may be people who are granted refugee status within the Republic of Ireland or being considered for asylum who would not be allowed into the UK but they are then free to travel either to the North of Ireland across that unpoliced border or under the free travel arrangements to Great Britain itself without any further checks.

THERESA VILLIERS: Well there will be risks to be managed and as I say, we’ve got a range of measures to combat illegal immigration which we could use to manage that risk.

DM: And these are the checks that are in place at the moment?

THERESA VILLIERS: They are the sort of things, you know, obligations on landlords, obligations on employers to ensure that they are not giving homes to illegal migrants, that they are not employing illegal migrants, these kind of measures to combat illegal immigration are ones that we could use in the event of a UK exit just as we can now.

DM: So your response to Bertie Ahern and indeed as you said, you’ve heard from so many figures within the Irish political side and so many other sides, your response to Bertie Ahern is ‘you’re wrong’?

THERESA VILLIERS: It’s reassurance.  There is no reason why we have to change our border arrangements in the event of a Brexit because they have been broadly consistent in the hundred years since the creation of Ireland as a separate state and actually I think, again the Irish Ambassador in his evidence to parliament made it clear that it would be in Ireland’s interests to maintain these kind of arrangements, it’s in the interests of both countries to keep an open border so there is no reason why that should change if the people of this country decide to exercise their freedom to vote to leave the EU.

DM: And what about the future of the Good Friday Agreement itself?  We all know how tortuous the process was to get that negotiated and to keep the peace process on track, now it runs like a thread within the Good Friday Agreement that both states are members of the European Union.  Wouldn’t it all unravel?

THERESA VILLIERS: No, I don’t believe it would and actually not many people have made that allegation, just one or two figures from the Remain campaign and I think that’s scaremongering of the most irresponsible and even dangerous kind because what they are effectively saying is a vote to leave the EU would somehow weaken the commitment of people in Northern Ireland to peace and democracy, weaken their commitment to their future being determined by democracy and consent. I don’t believe that’s going to happen.  The Belfast Good Friday Agreement was endorsed in referendums on both sides of the border, there is strong support for an entirely peaceful future for Northern Ireland and I think it is deeply irresponsible of those in the Remain camp to suggest otherwise.

DM: But what about just on the pure legalities?  This is an agreement between two states, it has clauses that refer to being partners within the European Union.  One party, given your view, would not be a member of the European Union, doesn’t that have to be renegotiated?

THERESA VILLIERS: I think what the situation would be is we would be facing the democratic exercise of choice by the people of the United Kingdom, I think that’s entirely consistent with the Belfast Good Friday Agreement and it would be in the interests of both the UK and Ireland to continue with the friendly relations that have been built up.  The relationship between the UK and Ireland has transformed over the last 10 to 15 years and that is due to many factors and I believe that is sufficiently strong that it would survive a UK exit from the European Union.

DM: Just one last question, are you confident that you could extract for Northern Ireland the same level of agricultural subsidy from a sovereign British parliament as it currently gets now from the Common Agricultural Policy?

THERESA VILLIERS: Yes, certainly.  I think developed countries all around the world recognise that it’s vital to have generous farm support payments, all the main parties capable of forming a government in this country support subsidies for our farmers, they would continue, I think they would continue at least the same levels as they do today and actually farmers in Northern Ireland would be free of the painful and exasperating bureaucracy that comes from the CAP.

DM: Secretary of State, thank you very much indeed for your time, Theresa Villiers there, the Northern Ireland Secretary.